How xG Signals works: our expected goals methodology

What are expected goals (xG)?

Expected goals (xG) is a statistical measure of the quality of a scoring chance. Each shot is assigned a value between 0 and 1 that represents the probability it results in a goal, based on factors such as shot location, angle, and the type of play that created it. Summing the xG of every chance in a match estimates how many goals a team “should” have scored, which is often a better guide to underlying performance than the actual scoreline.

How we make a pick

Our analysts watch matches live, as they unfold. Expected goals (xG) is a key part of how we read a game — alongside the run of play and the odds on offer — not an automated trigger. When the picture suggests more goals are likely than the current scoreline and market odds imply, we publish a pick. Every pick records the match, the minute it was logged, the score at that moment, the market, the selection, and the odds available — so the call is unambiguous and fully verifiable after the match settles.

Which markets we cover

Picks focus on goals-based, in-play markets — over/under goal totals (for example, Over 2.5 Goals), next goal, and remaining goals. Every pick states the market and the selection so the call is unambiguous.

How we measure performance

Every settled signal is staked as a flat 1 unit. Results are computed as follows:

• Net profit — sum of returns in units. A win returns the odds minus 1 (e.g. odds of 1.90 → +0.90); a loss returns −1; a void/refunded bet returns 0.
• Win rate — wins divided by decided bets (voids excluded).
• Yield — net profit divided by the number of decided bets, expressed as a percentage. It is the average return per unit staked.
• Average odds — the mean odds across all decided signals.

Voids are excluded from win rate and yield because the stake is returned. The same calculation runs across every time period on the statistics page, so yearly, monthly and daily figures are directly comparable.

Transparency

The full history of past signals — wins and losses alike — is public and free on the home page and the statistics page. Live, still-open picks are reserved for members. See the FAQ for membership and access details.